Currently, the European Union is developing a system of cross-border carbon regulation (TUR, also a carbon border adjustment mechanism, CBAM). The TUR in the EU involves charging a fee for the carbon footprint of imported products (GHG emissions during the production of products). Most likely, the European TUR system will spread to energy-intensive manufacturing industries (metallurgy, oil refining, chemicals, pulp and paper industry) and the electric power industry, which are currently subject to the EU ETS.
Russian exports of the above goods to the EU are $ 58–74 billion (14–16% of all Russian exports). EU climate policy can affect not only the export of fossil fuels, but also the supply of energy-intensive goods. Russia will incur the greatest losses from the introduction of the TOUR among all countries in the world. Quantitative estimates of the damage (additional burden on Russian exporters) from the commissioning of the TUR are, according to various estimates, from 2 to 5 billion euros per year. The main costs in Russia will be borne by exporters of oil products and metals. At the same time, it is obvious that the volume of the potential effect on the Russian economy strongly depends both on the sectoral coverage of the TUR and on the elements of its system in terms of accounting for emissions (only direct, direct and indirect, etc.), the timing of introduction and other factors. It is important that any of the options for introducing the TUR (consumption tax, customs duty, extension of the EU ETS to importers) or another option requires the rapid development and implementation of adaptation measures in Russia, moreover, in accordance with the WTO rules.